The aftermath of Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October continues to fan the flames of tension in Syria. This is evident through sporadic mortar attacks originating from Syrian territory, targeting the occupied Golan Heights, and prompting retaliatory responses from Israel.

Furthermore, US assets in Syria have frequently come under fire from Iranian-backed militias in response to President Biden’s biased support for Israel in its war on Gaza.

Notably, Russia, which maintains diplomatic ties with Israel, Iran, and the al-Assad regime, does not appear to be publicly engaged in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation — a stance that may not be entirely surprising for many.

While it is not actively seeking the Israel-Hamas conflict to evolve into a regional war, Moscow is emerging as a major beneficiary of these escalations. Its gains encompass maintaining pressure on the US to withdraw from Syria and a weakening of support and attention for Ukraine.

In contrast to decades of largely frozen frontlines, rocket attacks from southern Syria toward the occupied Golan Heights have resurfaced in the past three weeks.

The latest incident in this series of cross-border skirmishes was reported on 29 October, where at least two rocket shells from western Dara’a targeted Israel. In response, Tel Aviv has targeted not only the sources of the attacks but also other locations across the country to disrupt Iranian weapons supply routes to its allies in Syria or through it.

American bases targeted
Similarly, American bases in Syria and Iraq have been subjected to more than 20 attacks since 18 October, all claimed by Iranian-backed militias identifying themselves as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. These attacks have resulted in the injury of dozens of US soldiers, prompting US forces to retaliate by targeting facilities of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in eastern Syria.

While concerns are mounting regarding the regional consequences of Israel’s ongoing conflict, Moscow’s diplomatic efforts to defuse the escalating tensions seem to carry little, if any, significance.

Sources familiar with the matter indicate that Moscow does not appear to be actively trying to mitigate the increasing chain of attacks since 10 October. This contrasts with Moscow’s role as an ad hoc mediator between Tehran and Tel Aviv in Syria, such as relaying Israeli messages to the Iranian leadership to help contain hostilities that occurred on May 9-10, 2018.

To clarify this policy shift, some sources suggest Russia lacks sufficient leverage or influence over the involved parties to persuade them to de-escalate. Conversely, others highlight that, regardless of how much sway it has, Russia stands to benefit from the consequences of these escalations, particularly since they are perceived as posing no direct threat to Moscow.

Dmitry Peskov, the Russian presidential spokesman, recently stated, “There is no danger of Russia being drawn into the conflict.”

Longstanding Russian goal
First and foremost, the escalating attacks on US forces in Syria serve Moscow’s longstanding goal of expelling American troops from the region.

The roughly 900 US troops stationed in Syria have consistently faced harassment from both Russia and Iranian-backed militias in recent years. This strategy aims to increase the risks these troops face, further strengthening the case for their withdrawal.

The removal of US forces from Syria would pave the way for the Syrian regime to regain control of the resource-rich northeastern region, offering substantial financial incentives for Russia. Additionally, the eviction of US forces from Syria would represent a significant victory over its main rival, the United States.

Leaked classified documents earlier this year revealed the establishment of a coordination centre by Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime to coordinate efforts to compel the withdrawal of US military personnel.

Nevertheless, the frequency of these attacks has recently diminished due to various factors, including ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran regarding hostages and a new nuclear agreement. However, the recent escalations have resumed pressure on US troops even without Russia’s active participation.

Eye on Ukraine
More broadly, Moscow hopes that a prolonged conflict in Gaza will deplete the resources of its opponents and undermine their backing for Ukraine. Moscow anticipates that the America’s increased presence in the region and its heightened military support for Israel will divert resources away from Ukraine.

Even if there are no official funding cuts, the increased demand for US weapons could push Washington to prioritise deliveries to Tel Aviv over Ukraine or split supplies between the two fronts. This situation might result in delays in arms deliveries to Ukraine, a cause for concern for Kyiv as supplies are already running low.

Russia also views Israel’s war on Gaza and its fallout as a distraction for Western policymakers and the public, diverting attention away from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the atrocities committed by Russia there.

The increased tensions in Europe over responses to the Israel-Hamas war, a surge in anti-US sentiment due to its unequivocal pro-Israel stance across the Middle East and the global south, all have the potential to harm America’s diplomacy and image, which Moscow sees as additional wins.

To pocket these gains, all Russia needs to do is sit back and watch.

Al Majalla Magzine