As the finishing touches were being put to Al Majalla’s October issue – which includes extensive coverage of the 50th anniversary of the October War, when Egypt and Syria sprang a surprise attack on Israel in 1973 and changed the Middle East – the region and the world were surprised once more.

The 2023 shock had echoes of what happened half a century ago. There was a serious failure of Israel’s intelligence operation. Hamas breached the Gaza wall unforeseen, just as Egypt had crossed the Bar Lev Line in 1973.

Everything suddenly felt different.
But this new attack was also very different, in and of itself, from the equally surprising events of 50 years ago.

It did not originate from any of the armed forces of conventional nations. It was carried out by a faction, Hamas, and supported by some Arab and regional groups. And for the first time since 1948, when Palestinians were uprooted from their land to create the state of Israel, the attack successfully reached inside Israel.

When the West Bank, Jerusalem, Sinai, and the Golan Heights were lost to the Arab world in the June Setback of 1967, it occurred on Arab territory. Six years later, the October War reclaimed occupied lands in Syria and Egypt. The 1982 invasion occurred in Lebanon. Assassinations between these dates happened around the world, not in Israel.

But the events of 7 October happened there, which explains some of their resonance. Nonetheless, it is also important l to reflect on what happened, as well as where. There were many civilian casualties and numerous victims. Elements of the attacks stand out even in the Middle East, a place littered with the burial grounds of tragedies.

And now, the narrative prevailing in the West predominantly echoes the Israeli perspective. Israel is on high alert, exhibiting an unwavering collective determination for retribution against Gaza – its establishment, its political structure and the lives of its young inhabitants.

Amid the debris and bloodshed, there is an international scramble to establish rules of engagement and avenues of escape for Palestinian civilians caught in any onslaught.
Will 7 October change the course of history?

There appears to be more tumult ahead in a volatile region that is no stranger to bloodshed and violence. There is likely to be a fresh chapter of that. Conflict seems to loom at every turn, and following each conflict, a resolution is sought.

Historical insight
Delving into the annals of both recent and more distant history might offer valuable insight into what may be written next, so soon after this latest surprise.

After all, the June Setback led to the victory of the October War. Presidents Anwar Sadat and Hafez al-Assad found common ground in conflict but diverged on the notion of peace. Sadat initiated the separation process and guided Egypt, often called Umm Al-Dunia (the Mother of the World), towards the Camp David agreement.

Conversely, al-Assad found himself engulfed in the flames of war. He comprehended the allure of power and the perils of peace and chose disengagement as cover.

Times also changed in the 1990s. After the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991, following the war to liberate Kuwait, the US looked as if it was on the way to becoming the world’s only superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This was the global and regional context in which Yasser Arafat, head of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, signed the Oslo Accords in 1993, and King Hussein endorsed the Wadi Araba Agreement in 1994.

Then, in late 1995, Israel’s Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. His successor, Shimon Peres, wanted to “fly in the sky” on the wings of a “New Middle East” after the murder, which led to the Grapes of Wrath operation in Lebanon in 1996. Suicide operations in Israel halted that; Peres lost at the polls and was succeeded by the right-wing Benjamin Netanyahu.
In 2006, the devastating July war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah occurred.  It ended with the issuance of UN Resolution 1703, which effectively neutralised the southern front in exchange for Hezbollah turning its attention to Beirut.

The United States spoke of the “birth of a new Middle East”.

Contemporary context
And so we arrive at 7 October 2023. As the calendar flipped over to that fateful date, we should remember that significant changes were already underway in the region and internationally.
Maritime boundaries were being delineated between Lebanon and Israel, as facilitated by the Abraham Accords. There was talk of border demarcation. There had been an agreement between the US and Russia to move Iranian militias to a distance of 80 kilometres from the disengagement line in the Golan Heights.
Also, as 7 October 2023 arrived, talks between the US and Saudi Arabia were underway over major strategic agreements to lay the foundations for a new Middle East and to support Palestinians in moves toward securing their right to statehood.

And so, more than one set of events going on around 7 October 2023 could change the course of history. Many of them were seeking a future for the Middle East that blends the interests of major powers – such as the US, China and Russia – to their benefit while also serving the interests of the people in the region.

This issue looks at all these vital matters and more. It is infused with both anguish and aspiration, using history as a guide but refusing to be confined by it in setting out a vision for the future.

Al Majalla also offers analyses, interviews and articles on other significant scientific, cultural, political and economic trends worldwide.

There are clear signs that one chapter is closing and another is being written. Given the weight of all that history, the Middle East may remain faithful to its heritage by leaving some questions unanswered and responding to others with caution.

But this could mark the turning of a significant chapter in the region.

Al Majalla Magzine