Attacks between the United States and Iran in northeastern Syria have been a normal occurrence for quite some time. Pro-Tehran militias in Deir Ez-Zor Province have been targeted in “mysterious raids” launched by Israel and the US, and militias have responded with artillery shelling or drones.

This was the dynamic of past military exchanges, but now there seems to be additional players challenging America’s presence in Syria — along with its determination to keep its forces in the country.

Open condemnation

While in the past, exchanges between US and pro-Iranian forces in Syria were more secretive in nature, now both sides are openly declaring responsibility for attacks.

When an American site was recently bombed killing a contractor and wounding others, the US responded with raids by planes launched from Al Udeid Air Force base in Qatar, setting off a tit-for-tat exchange of attacks between the two sides.

Meanwhile, Iran openly condemned the American raids with a government spokesman using bold language to describe the attack, calling it an “aggressive terrorist attack.”

On his part, US President Joe Biden said: “The United States does not seek conflict with Iran. But be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people.”Syria is the new ‘mailbox’

The recent flare up can also be attributed to the relative lull in violence in neighbouring Iraq where pro-Iranian factions have effectively called for a truce with Western countries, pledging to not target Western interests there.

Whereas before Iraq was the “mailbox” where the US and Iran exchanged messages with one another, this seems to have now shifted to Syria.

This has unfolded amid a recent debate in the US Congress regarding abolishing the Authorization for the Use of Military Force Act which would remove the legal basis for US military presence, not only in Syria but in many places around the world.

The amendment to rescind the 2001 AUMF was introduced by Republican Senator Rand Paul on the 20th anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq but received only nine votes in favour and 86 against during a session on 22 March.

Regional détente

Zooming out to the broader region, the tit-for-tat exchanges have come amid widespread attempts at reconciliation which has seen Arab nations try to coax Iraq back into the Arab fold.

Meanwhile, Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation is underway, and steps have been taken by some Arab states to normalise relations with Damascus. On their part, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to resume diplomatic ties under Chinese auspices.

Read more: Will the Saudi-Iran deal reshuffle the regional security deck?

Russian provocations

It’s important to note that the escalation has also came amidst a string of Russian provocations against the US. Russian planes flew more than 25 times in March over the American al-Tanf base in south-east Syria, breaching established protocols between Moscow and Washington.

In mid-2017, America and Russia agreed on a coordination framework between the two militaries in Syrian airspace and territory to avoid clashes between the two superpowers. The two governments reiterated the agreement when the US reduced its troops in 2019.

This no longer exists. A few weeks ago, the US Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, visited his troops in northeastern Syria, the highest-ranking visit by an American official to the region.

Milley, who is leaving office soon, may have wanted to stress the commitment to keep US forces there — a message to Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow. The reality, however, is that the Russians have carried out many provocations since the onset of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

Read more: From the Black Sea to Syria, Russian provocation of US troops intensifies

Syria is seemingly undergoing a new test amid escalation between Russian and the West in Ukraine, where Moscow is using Iranian-made drones in the fight.

An emboldened al-Assad

The attacks also come at a time where Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is feeling strong. The previously embattled leader has been emboldened by Arab overtures to normalise relations with his regime, while waiting to see what happens after the Turks go to polls in May.

Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calls for al-Assad to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — who seeks reelection with regional, Arab and Russian support — Damascus has put conditions, calling on Ankara to end its “occupation” in the north of the country.

For now, however, the joint aim between Syria, Iran and Russia seems to be focused on pressuring US forces east of the Euphrates. Ending “Turkish occupation” is not an issue for Russia or Iran at the moment.So, here we see a shift from a “Russian-Iranian” Syria to a “Russian-Iranian-Turkish” Syria against the American enclave.

The message —indicated by the flurry of statements and strikes — seems to be that a “withdrawal” must take place of an “illegal presence” which, for now, is focused on that of the US in northeastern Syria.

Al Majalla